EU and NATO Decision-making During a Potential Joint Russian and Chinese Strategic Escalation: Lessons for EU and NATO From Simulating Two-theatre Escalation, 2025
Information
Date - 2025
Summary - A potential East Asian contingency, in the form of a conflict or a crisis involving Taiwan, could present a complex set of scenarios that would significantly impact international relations, particularly between the European Union, the United States, and East Asian democracies. Meanwhile, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have formed a clearly hostile geopolitical axis. Despite the critical nature of these potential scenarios, there is currently a lack of comprehensive understanding and preparedness among EU and NATO officials and experts, both at the institutional and at the member state levels. These gaps in knowledge and preparedness can hinder the development of coordinated and effective policy responses in areas such as foreign policy, defense, trade and economic security, and human rights. Therefore, it is urgent that selected EU and NATO officials be informed and educated about the practical details of possible East Asian contingency scenarios, including the escalatory moves Russia might take in Europe during such a crisis. The following report is based on a closed-door tabletop exercise conducted by the European Values Center for Security Policy (EVC) and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF). It details the respective actions taken by active players and the subsequent feedback provided by the players themselves and by observers. None of its contents reflect the formal positions of any state or institution in real life. This fictional simulation aims to inform re- al-life policy planning by showing how such a two-theater escalation scenario might play out, as well as how individual states and institutions might react. It also aims to identify potential gaps in planning and decision-making that could arise during such a crisis. While this report compiles the opinions of governmental and non-governmental experts, the sole responsibility over the final formulations lies with the authors — the analysts of the European Values Center for Security Policy. This report cannot and should not be interpreted as representing positions of any of the individuals or institutions involved in this simulation. For sensitivity reasons, the identities of the participants will not be publicly disclosed.
Archival processing title - EU and NATO Decision-making During a Potential Joint Russian and Chinese Strategic Escalation: Lessons for EU and NATO From Simulating Two-theatre Escalation
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Language - English
Rights - Used with permission. This copy is provided for educational and research purposes only. No publication, further reproduction, or reuse of copies, beyond fair use, may be made without the express written permission of the copyright owner. For more information, please contact the Hoover Institution Library & Archives.
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